The Economic Impacts of Newly Irrigated Areas in the Ebro Valley

This paper uses regional input-output tables to analyse the long-term impact resulting from the implementation of the newly irrigated areas provided for under the terms of the Ebro Basin Hydrological Plan. We have described the whole process by way of two consecutive stages. In the first, where the final demand is fixed, we use a demand-driven input-output model and we incorporate technical change through the reduction of the coefficients. In the second, the output of all sectors increases, with the increases in the vector of output being proportional to the forward linkages vector of the Agriculture sector. In this stage, our objective is to obtain a final demand vector that ensures that the agricultural value added increases to a prescribed value of v 1 *. Whilst the results demonstrate the positive effects of the transformation, they also reveal effects of a very different character in each sector. Thus, the Agriculture, Livestock and Agri-food industry sectors show significant increases in their gross outputs caused by the forward effects, whilst the Energy, Metal and Chemicals sectors reduce their outputs. These results shed light on the contradictory nature of the processes of development and technical change.     

中美农业补贴政策的若干比较与借鉴

美国农业长期得益于政府的保护和支持,但遭遇的贸易争端相对较少,这与农业补贴方式的制度设计和补贴结构的适时调整有关。我国的农业补贴政策改革应借鉴美国的成功经验,在增加补贴额度、改间接补贴为直接补贴的同时,调整"黄箱"补贴结构,扩大"绿箱"补贴范围并逐步提高"绿箱"补贴水平。     

外商直接投资与我国农产品和食品贸易关系的研究

本文运用计量经济模型,对我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI之间的关系进行了研究,结果表明我国农产品和食品进口、出口和总贸易量与FDI之间皆存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且这种关系具有互补性。在此基础上,本文还对各变量之间是否存在因果关系进行了检验,以便进一步揭示二者之间的联系。同时结合我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI的特点,对结果进行了相应的讨论。     

中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力的分析——基于贸易引力模型的研究

贸易引力模型是对国际贸易进行实证分析的重要方法。本文以传统引力模型为基础,并结合中国与东盟国家的实际情况建立模型,定量分析中国与东盟10国农产品贸易的状况。通过对模型的实证检验,得出影响中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量的因素主要有GDP总量、人口数量、空间距离和制度安排等。在此基础上预测了中国与各国的贸易潜力,得出中国与东盟多数国家之间存在"贸易不足",认为双边农产品贸易发展潜力巨大,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

中印农产品贸易互补性及贸易潜力分析

通过对中国和印度农产品贸易比较优势、结构特点的分析,研究了两国农产品贸易产业间和产业内的互补性;在此基础上,从产业间和产业内互补的不同角度,分析了双方具有潜在互补性和较大贸易容量及紧密贸易联系的农产品,以揭示两国之间的农产品贸易潜力。研究表明,中印农产品的贸易互补性在现实贸易中并没有得到充分体现,两国农产品贸易具有进一步开发的潜力。     

半强制现金分红政策对农林上市公司投资者回报的影响

运用 Fama & MacBeth 的时间序列横截面回归法,建立计量经济模型,在控制市场风险、公司市场规模和公司账面价值的条件下,分析了中国证监会推出一系列半强制现金分红政策对农林板块上市公司和投资者回报的影响。结果表明,农林板块上市公司在该类政策出台后进行现金分红,并没有出现显著的现金溢价效应,分红政策对投资者回报的影响不显著。     

我国农企海外并购问题与对策研究

随着人们生活水平的提高和对健康生活方式的追求,农业企业迎来新一轮的发展契机。在当前的海外并购浪潮中,农业企业也不甘落后,紧跟国家政策的步伐,抓住并购良机整合海外优质资源,加快产业链整合的速度。然而,在农业企业“走出去”的过程中,难免会遇到各种问题和困境,本文基于农企海外并购的现状,分析其存在的问题,并试图分别在企业和政府的角度来提供建议。     

Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Recovery Programme in the 1990s: an evaluation using household survey data

During the 1990s, the Government of Zimbabwe implemented an Agricultural Recovery Programme to help smallholder farmers recover from repeated severe droughts. The programme aimed to provide drought-affected smallholders with crop packs (free seeds and fertiliser) and mechanised tillage services. This article evaluates the coverage, poverty-sensitivity and impact of the programme using a more in-depth analysis of household survey data than has been done to date. The programme’s tillage component was unsuccessful, repeatedly reaching less than 5% of its target group; the crop pack component, however, reached four-fifths or more of its target group. Most of the poorer households received crop packs, but richer households were slightly more likely to get them. Those who did receive crop packs planted larger areas under staple crops, regardless of their poverty status. These findings are generally robust for a range of poverty proxies. Unfortunately, there is no clear evidence on the impact, if any, of crop packs on grain yields. Crop packs—properly attuned to local agro-ecological conditions—may serve a useful role in post-drought recovery. Steps must be taken, however, to ensure that all the poor receive crop packs. Attempts by government to provide mechanised tillage to hundreds of thousands of smallholder households are not recommended.     

Transmission of price shifts in the context of structural adjustment: An empirical analysis for staple food after the devaluation of the franc CFA in Ivory Coast

This article analyses price shifts after currency devaluation in the Ivory Coast using a time‐series modelling approach. Model results identify the liberalisation of the import‐rice sector as the key factor for the transmission of price effects. Fixation of the imported rice price as a social compensatory measure hindered the adjustment of prices in the first year after the devaluation. As soon as the price controls on imported rice were lifted, prices changed in favour of tradable goods. The findings in this paper hint at a possible trade‐off between the protection of vulnerable groups during the process of adjustment and the intended incentive effect.     

The economics of coupled farm subsidies under costly and imperfect enforcement

This study relaxes the assumption of perfect and costless policy enforcement found in traditional agricultural policy analysis and introduces enforcement costs and cheating into the economic analysis of output subsidies. Policy design and implementation is modeled in this paper as a sequential game between the regulator who decides on the level of intervention, an enforcement agency that determines the level of policy enforcement, and the farmer who makes the production and cheating decisions. Analytical results show that farmer compliance is not the natural outcome of self‐interest and complete deterrence of cheating is not economically efficient. The analysis also shows that enforcement costs and cheating change the welfare effects of output subsidies, the efficiency of the policy instrument in redistributing income, the level of government intervention that transfers a given surplus to agricultural producers, the socially optimal income redistribution, and the social welfare from intervention.